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Any discussion of the Indo-Pacific region must start with China as a rising global power, and Navy Adm. Samuel Paparo gave a snapshot of what military competition with China would look like for the United States.
Paparo, the commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, spoke to Michael O'Hanlon and Lynn Kuok at the Brookings Institution, yesterday. The admiral also answered questions about North Korea and India during the wide-ranging discussion at the Washington think tank.
China is demonstrating and working on improving its power. This past summer, China held exercises that covered a large geographical area and one that demonstrated joint capabilities, and the admiral followed them closely. "It was the 'jointest' operations for air, missile, maritime power that I'd seen over an entire career of being an observer," Paparo said.
On one day, he noted, the Chinese had 152 vessels at sea, including three quarters of their amphibious force. He said the People's Republic of China exercised 43 amphibious brigades to include rehearsal in breaching obstacles and military operations in urban terrain. "We saw also two demonstrations of military power in response to the Taiwan inauguration on May 20, and then, once again, on 1010 — Taiwan National Day, as it's so called," he said.
"This was the largest rehearsal we've seen," he said. It demonstrated the upward trajectory of PLA modernization.
The Chinese military also exercised with Russian air and maritime forces this summer in the Bering Sea. That exercise included ships and long-range aviation, he said.
China is not the only competitor in the region, and Paparo specifically talked about the threat North Korea poses to the region and beyond. He pointed to the recent test of its largest ballistic missile this past week. That missile "reached an apogee of over 7,000 kilometers, portending a capability that will have the ability to range the entire continental United States," he said.
He added that the North Koreans have not demonstrated the capability of weaponizing the missile "but we just see continued testing towards that."
But China is the main competitor in the region and Paparo was grilled on Chinese capabilities and intentions. He was specifically asked about the Chinese initiative to build a military that can challenge the United States by the centennial of the Chinese Communist Party in 2027. "The closer we get to 2027 the less relevant the date becomes," he said. He does not see that as the date the Chinese would invade Taiwan.
"I think it is a worthy benchmark to say, we had better pay close attention to this," the admiral said. Paparo has the responsibility under the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979 to be ready for any change to the status quo. "I am responsible for being ready every single day," he said.
The United States has worldwide commitments and there are competing requirements for resources and systems. The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the Hamas attack on Israel are depleting stocks the Indo-Pacific might need, Paparo said. He said that until this year the effect on his command by the delivery of systems to Ukraine and Israel was negligible. "But now, with some of the Patriots that have been employed, some of the air-to-air missiles that have been employed, it is now eating into stocks, … and to say otherwise would be dishonest," he said.
These high-end stocks are crucial in the Indo-Pacific, he said. "It imposes costs on the readiness of America to respond in the Indo-Pacific region, which is the most stressing theater for the quantity and quality of munitions, because is the most capable potential adversary in the world," Paparo said.
Paparo also addressed the growing U.S. military partnership with India. The two countries are cooperating across a range of areas including undersea domain awareness, joint production and more. "We see this security partnership growing year by year," he said. "India cherishes its history in the non-aligned movement. So those who aspire to an alliance with India, I think, don't hold your breath. We're not holding our breath either."
But that does not temper U.S. moves to a deeper partnership and deeper friendship with India. China also competes with India. "There have been flash points of tension at sea and along its border, and those are opportunities for our cooperation as well," the admiral said.
India has ties with Russia, who supplied much of the weapons systems India used since the 1960s. "I believe that those partnerships will likely fade over time as the partnership between the United States and India grows, but we cannot be complacent about it," he said. "But we have many, many mutual interests, and we've got to — both of us — keep our foot on the accelerator."
